Public record
Model accuracy
Winner-pick hit rate on completed games. Not betting profit. Full slices, trends, and calibration stay in the subscriber dashboard.
Public accuracy record
56.8%
298 / 525 correct
- Tennis73.3%(n=90)
- UFC63.7%(n=80)
- NBA57.5%(n=80)
- WNBA57.5%(n=80)
- MLB52.5%(n=80)
- NHL50.0%(n=80)
Pick hit rate is how often the model's favorite side won — not betting profit. Past results do not guarantee future performance; small samples are noisy. Tennis, UFC, and soccer prefer append-only pre-event ledger snapshots when available (evaluationMode=ledger). Other sports still use current-engine retrospective replay (evaluationMode=legacy_replay), which reflects today's weights rather than the probabilities shown before tip-off. Future-dated events are quarantined. Slices show edge / market-agree / model-only cohorts. Tennis headline uses picks with ≥8% model edge (once ≥15 such matches exist). NFL headline uses ≥18% edge; NCAAF uses ≥14% edge.
| Sport | n | Correct | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennis | 90 | 66 | 73.3% |
| UFC | 80 | 51 | 63.7% |
| NBA | 80 | 46 | 57.5% |
| WNBA | 80 | 46 | 57.5% |
| MLB | 80 | 42 | 52.5% |
| NHL | 80 | 40 | 50.0% |
| Soccer | 35 | 7 | 20.0% |