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Montana @ Oregon State

Week 3 · Regular Season · Reser Stadium

Upcoming

9/19 · 11:00 PM EDT

Montana

–

State

–

Kickoff 2026-09-20T03:00:00Z

Scoring, play-by-play, and this-game stats appear after kickoff.

Match analysis

Rules-based context

Model pick: Montana (93% win probability). Projected score: Oregon State 20.7 – Montana 36.5. Venue: Reser Stadium. Oregon State record: 2-10-0. Oregon State streak: L3.

Context

•Venue: Reser Stadium.
•Oregon State record: 2-10-0.
•Oregon State streak: L3.
•Oregon State scoring: 18.2 PPG, 29.4 allowed.
•Montana record: 13-1-0.
•Montana streak: W2.

Matchup

CompetitionNCAAF

Season2026

Week3

Season typeregular

StartSat, Sep 19, 10:00 PM

VenueReser Stadium

Model prediction

american_football_ensemble_v1

Model vs market

Pick: Montana
Model win prob: 92.8%
Book implied: 16.0%
Edge vs book: +76.8 pp

Spread estimate

Model estimate favors Oregon State ATS by ~1.7 vs Montana -17.5

Total estimate

Model estimate favors over 52.5 by ~4.7

Informational model estimates only — not betting advice.

🔥 ¼ Kelly away 8.0%

Oregon State7.2%

MontanaModel pick92.8%

Pick margin 78.1% · |favorite − 50%| × 2 (how far from a coin flip)

Expected score 36.5 – 20.7

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not gambling or financial advice. Not affiliated with any league, team, or sportsbook. Model outputs are estimates, not guarantees. Terms

Market lines

Primary line

Odds for context only. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.

Showing the primary game line. Multi-book prices appear after the next odds ingest.

Book	Home ML	Away ML	Spread	Total
Primary line	1.11 (-909)	6.25 (+525)	-17.5 (—)	+52.5 O — / U —

Field analysis

Zones tinted by season mismatch edges for the selected attacking side — separate from the model’s match winner pick. Yellow mark shows the starter’s season-long field-goal range (FG distance − snap/hold). Informational overlay, not live tracking.

Montana attackOregon State attack

Offense edge / weak DTough for offenseFG range

Axis edges when Montana is attacking

Pass game· Pass game
Montana 42.3 PPG vs Oregon State 29.4 PAPG (pass-game proxy)
+0.45Strong
Run / trenches· Run game
Montana 42.3 PPG vs Oregon State 29.4 PAPG (run-game proxy)
+0.45Strong
Red zone / scoring· Scoring efficiency
Montana 42.3 PPG vs Oregon State 29.4 PAPG
+0.56Strong

Axis edges when Oregon State is attacking

Pass game· Pass game
Oregon State 18.2 PPG vs Montana 23.8 PAPG (pass-game proxy)
-0.40Tough
Run / trenches· Run game
Oregon State 18.2 PPG vs Montana 23.8 PAPG (run-game proxy)
-0.40Tough
Red zone / scoring· Scoring efficiency
Oregon State 18.2 PPG vs Montana 23.8 PAPG
-0.50Tough

Offense / defense exploits

Season offense rates vs the opponent's defense allowed — compared side-by-side by attacking team. Informational estimates from box stats, not betting advice. See player matchups below for the personnel driving these edges.

MontanavsOregon StateBy mismatch size

Axis	Montana	Oregon State
Scoring efficiency	+0.56 Strong 42.3 PPG vs 29.4 PAPG	-0.50 Tough 18.2 PPG vs 23.8 PAPG
Pass game	+0.45 Strong 42.3 PPG vs 29.4 PAPG (pass-game proxy)	-0.40 Tough 18.2 PPG vs 23.8 PAPG (pass-game proxy)
Run game	+0.45 Strong 42.3 PPG vs 29.4 PAPG (run-game proxy)	-0.40 Tough 18.2 PPG vs 23.8 PAPG (run-game proxy)
Pressure / protection	+0.22 Edge 42.3 PPG vs 29.4 PAPG (protection proxy)	-0.20 Soft 18.2 PPG vs 23.8 PAPG (protection proxy)

Player matchups

Depth-chart starters paired across the ball — WR vs CB, TE vs LB, RB vs front, OL vs DL, and QB pressure — scored by volume vs opposing unit rates. Ranked by mismatch size. Projected from season player stats (no depth chart)

MontanavsOregon StateOne row per position

MontanaOregon State

OL vs DL

QB pressure

WR vs CB

TE vs LB

RB vs front

Position	Offense	Defense	Edge
OL vs DL Lean Montana	Montana OL	Oregon State DL	+0.45 Strong
QB pressure Lean Montana	Cody Schweikert QB	Aiden Sullivan EDGE	+0.22 Edge
WR vs CB Even matchup	Brooks Davis WR 12 rec yd	Sailasa Vadrawale CB 1 rec yd	+0.04 Even
TE vs LB Even matchup	Mariano Birdno TE 5 rec yd	Aiden Sullivan LB	+0.04 Even
RB vs front Even matchup	Eli Gillman RB 4 rec yd	Aiden Sullivan FRONT	+0.01 Even

Team snapshot (season)

Full-season team record and efficiency — not a single-game box score.

Montana	Metric	Oregon State
13–1	Record (W–L–T)	2–10
92.9%	Win %	16.7%
42.3	Points / game	18.2
23.8	Points allowed / game	29.4

Form (standings)

Published standings strings — complements the numeric team snapshot above.

Montana	Metric	Oregon State
13-1-0	Season	2-10-0
9-1	Last 10	2-8
W2	Streak	L3
9-1	Home	2-5
4-0	Road	0-5

Head-to-head

All-time 0-0

Season 0-0

No recent meetings listed

Top season contributors

Leading season totals by yardage and defensive impact (API-ranked).

Montana

Brooks Davis · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 12 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Lekeldrick Bridges · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 8 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Landon Ransom-Goelz · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 7 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Mariano Birdno · TE · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 5 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Eli Gillman · RB · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 4 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Dylan Paine · RB · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 2 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Titus Rohrer · TE · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 2 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Clay Oven · LB · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 1 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack

Oregon State

D.C. Temple · TE · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 5 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Jesse Legree · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 5 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Aeryn Hampton · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 4 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Eric Olsen · TE · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 4 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Kourdey Glass · RB · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 3 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Xayvion Noland · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 3 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
AJ Newberry · RB · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 2 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Cynai Thomas · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 2 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack

Quarterbacks

Depth-chart QB and backup, with season passing totals when available.

Montana

Cody Schweikert · QB · 0 yd · 0 TD · 0 INT · rush 0 yd
Keali'i Ah Yat · QB · 0 yd · 0 TD · 1 INT · rush 0 yd

Oregon State

Braden Atkinson · QB · 0 yd · 0 TD · 0 INT · rush 0 yd

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