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Boston College @ Notre Dame

Week 11 · Regular Season · Notre Dame Stadium

Upcoming

11/14 · 3:30 PM EST

College

–

Dame

–

Kickoff 2026-11-14T20:30:00Z

Scoring, play-by-play, and this-game stats appear after kickoff.

Match analysis

Rules-based context

Model pick: Notre Dame (98% win probability). Projected score: Notre Dame 33.8 – Boston College 18.6. Venue: Notre Dame Stadium. Notre Dame record: 8-1-0. Notre Dame streak: W2.

Context

•Venue: Notre Dame Stadium.
•Notre Dame record: 8-1-0.
•Notre Dame streak: W2.
•Notre Dame scoring: 39.3 PPG, 14.6 allowed.
•Boston College record: 4-5-0.
•Boston College streak: L2.

Matchup

CompetitionNCAAF

Season2026

Week11

Season typeregular

StartSat, Nov 14, 2:30 PM

VenueNotre Dame Stadium

Model prediction

american_football_ensemble_v1

Model vs market

Pick: Notre Dame
Model win prob: 97.6%
Book implied: 98.0%
Edge vs book: -0.4 pp

Spread estimate

Model estimate favors Notre Dame ATS by ~44.7 vs Boston College -29.5

Total estimate

Model estimate favors over 51.5 by ~0.9

Informational model estimates only — not betting advice.

Notre DameModel pick97.6%

Boston College2.4%

Pick margin 86.9% · |favorite − 50%| × 2 (how far from a coin flip)

Expected score 18.6 – 33.8

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not gambling or financial advice. Not affiliated with any league, team, or sportsbook. Model outputs are estimates, not guarantees. Terms

Market lines

9 books · 88 snapshots

Odds for context only. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.

Notre Dame ML 1.02 -5000 · DraftKingsBoston College ML 26.00 +2500 · BetMGMBest spread -29.5 1.96 -104 · LowVig.agBest over +52 1.93 -108 · LowVig.ag

Line movement

Total +52.5 → +51.5

Book	Home ML	Away ML	Spread	Total
BetMGM	1.02 (-5000)	26.00 (+2500)	-29 (1.91 (-110))	+51.5 O 1.87 (-115) / U 1.95 (-105)
BetOnline.ag	—	—	-29.5 (1.93 (-108))	+52 O 1.91 (-110) / U 1.91 (-110)
BetRivers	—	—	-29 (1.91 (-110))	+52.5 O 1.93 (-108) / U 1.85 (-118)
BetUS	—	—	-29 (1.91 (-110))	+52 O 1.91 (-110) / U 1.91 (-110)
Bovada	1.01 (-10000)	19.00 (+1800)	-29 (1.89 (-112))	+51.5 O 1.89 (-112) / U 1.93 (-108)
DraftKings	1.02 (-5000)	19.00 (+1800)	-29.5 (1.91 (-110))	+51.5 O 1.87 (-115) / U 1.95 (-105)
FanDuel	1.01 (-10000)	21.00 (+2000)	-29.5 (1.91 (-110))	+51.5 O 1.91 (-110) / U 1.91 (-110)
LowVig.ag	—	—	-29.5 (1.96 (-104))	+52 O 1.93 (-108) / U 1.93 (-108)
MyBookie.ag	1.01 (-10000)	16.00 (+1500)	-29.5 (1.91 (-110))	+51.5 O 1.91 (-110) / U 1.91 (-110)

Field analysis

Zones tinted by season mismatch edges for the selected attacking side — separate from the model’s match winner pick. Yellow mark shows the starter’s season-long field-goal range (FG distance − snap/hold). Informational overlay, not live tracking.

Boston College attackNotre Dame attack

Offense edge / weak DTough for offenseFG range

Axis edges when Boston College is attacking

Pass game· Pass game
Boston College 21.9 PPG vs Notre Dame 14.6 PAPG (pass-game proxy)
-0.56Tough
Run / trenches· Run game
Boston College 21.9 PPG vs Notre Dame 14.6 PAPG (run-game proxy)
-0.56Tough
Red zone / scoring· Scoring efficiency
Boston College 21.9 PPG vs Notre Dame 14.6 PAPG
-0.70Tough

Axis edges when Notre Dame is attacking

Pass game· Pass game
Notre Dame 39.3 PPG vs Boston College 27.0 PAPG (pass-game proxy)
+0.29Edge
Run / trenches· Run game
Notre Dame 39.3 PPG vs Boston College 27.0 PAPG (run-game proxy)
+0.29Edge
Red zone / scoring· Scoring efficiency
Notre Dame 39.3 PPG vs Boston College 27.0 PAPG
+0.37Edge

Offense / defense exploits

Season offense rates vs the opponent's defense allowed — compared side-by-side by attacking team. Informational estimates from box stats, not betting advice. See player matchups below for the personnel driving these edges.

CollegevsDameBy mismatch size

Axis	College	Dame
Scoring efficiency	-0.70 Tough 21.9 PPG vs 14.6 PAPG	+0.37 Edge 39.3 PPG vs 27.0 PAPG
Pass game	-0.56 Tough 21.9 PPG vs 14.6 PAPG (pass-game proxy)	+0.29 Edge 39.3 PPG vs 27.0 PAPG (pass-game proxy)
Run game	-0.56 Tough 21.9 PPG vs 14.6 PAPG (run-game proxy)	+0.29 Edge 39.3 PPG vs 27.0 PAPG (run-game proxy)
Pressure / protection	-0.28 Soft 21.9 PPG vs 14.6 PAPG (protection proxy)	+0.15 Edge 39.3 PPG vs 27.0 PAPG (protection proxy)

Player matchups

Depth-chart starters paired across the ball — WR vs CB, TE vs LB, RB vs front, OL vs DL, and QB pressure — scored by volume vs opposing unit rates. Ranked by mismatch size. Projected from season player stats (no depth chart)

CollegevsDameOne row per position

CollegeDame

OL vs DL

RB vs front

TE vs LB

WR vs CB

QB pressure

Position	Offense	Defense	Edge
OL vs DL Lean Dame	Boston College OL	Notre Dame DL	-0.56 Strong
RB vs front Lean Dame	Evan Dickens RB 12 rec yd	Jaiden Ausberry FRONT 3 rec yd	-0.44 Strong
TE vs LB Lean Dame	Brady Clough TE 7 rec yd	Jaiden Ausberry LB 3 rec yd	-0.41 Strong
WR vs CB Lean Dame	Javarius Green WR 31 rec yd	Ayden Pouncey CB	-0.41 Strong
QB pressure Lean Dame	Mason McKenzie QB 1 rec yd	Jaiden Ausberry EDGE 3 rec yd	-0.28 Edge

Team snapshot (season)

Full-season team record and efficiency — not a single-game box score.

Boston College	Metric	Notre Dame
4–5	Record (W–L–T)	8–1
44.4%	Win %	88.9%
21.9	Points / game	39.3
27.0	Points allowed / game	14.6

Form (standings)

Published standings strings — complements the numeric team snapshot above.

Boston College	Metric	Notre Dame
4-5-0	Season	8-1-0
4-5	Last 10	8-1
L2	Streak	W2
3-2	Home	5-0
1-3	Road	3-1

Head-to-head

All-time 1-0

Season 0-0

Sat, Nov 1, 9:30 AM · Notre Dame @ Boston College · 25–10

Top season contributors

Leading season totals by yardage and defensive impact (API-ranked).

Boston College

Javarius Green · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 31 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
John Montague · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 15 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Dawson Pough · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 13 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Evan Dickens · RB · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 12 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Jaedn Skeete · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 11 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Bo MacCormack III · RB · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 10 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Landon Wright · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 9 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Brady Clough · TE · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 7 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack

Notre Dame

Jordan Faison · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 44 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Micah Gilbert · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 33 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Jaden Greathouse · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 23 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Nolan James Jr. · RB · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 14 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Aneyas Williams · RB · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 11 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Jerome Bettis Jr. · WR · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 10 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Jack Larsen · TE · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 9 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack
Jonaz Walton · RB · 0 pass yd · 0 pass TD · 0 rush yd · 8 rec yd · TOT 0 · 0.0 sack

Quarterbacks

Depth-chart QB and backup, with season passing totals when available.

Boston College

Mason McKenzie · QB · 0 yd · 0 TD · 8 INT · rush 0 yd
Femi Babalola · QB · 0 yd · 0 TD · 0 INT · rush 0 yd

Notre Dame

C.J. Carr · QB · 0 yd · 0 TD · 1 INT · rush 0 yd
Noah Grubbs · QB · 0 yd · 0 TD · 0 INT · rush 0 yd

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